Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
